Some Draft thoughts


#1

It has been a strange class. It is really hard to differentiate this group. Studied a lot from the 30000 ft level and two handfuls of players in depth. Lots of factors make this one difficult. The Gil Brandt piece sums it up well. You gave 13 to 17 true first round guys and then 50 to 60 evenly bunched.

Who don’t I like… Key I wouldn’t have him on my board, Harold Landry he’s too small watch ND film tells the story, Vita Vea he is run stopping 2 down player can’t gain weight and be effective already gasses , and Hernandez he’s not Mike Iupati.

Who do I like…Marcus Davenport I don’t think they will draft him though, Fitzpatrick, James they would have to move up for either of these guys and use them creatively, Nelson they can’t get high enough to draft him, the ND tackle too, Edmonds, R. Smith could turn out to be the Best player of the defensive class.

Go back for the Vander Esch fans and watch the Virginia tape. Watch the ND tape of both Lorenzo Carter from Georgia and Harold Landry BC. Finally Pete at the GBPG has done a couple of great pieces recently on Edge and DB, freaks me out something is out of whack as hold freaking similar opinions to the NFC scouts he is talking to. Just doesn’t happen much…Harold Landry is not Vic Beasley…


#2

Edmonds, James, Smith, Fitzpatrick and Davenport in that order

I think Edmonds is the top non DL in the draft. 19 years old, 6’4", 255 and fast. He’s a great talent
James, grew up 15 miles from me and went to our Rival High School. Freakish athlete and a great guy. 6’3’, 215 Safety who can play corner and runs in the 4.4s. Crazy
Smith is a more polished highly talented but less so than Edmonds LB. Ranges sideline to sideline with ease.
Fitzpatrick is a great athlete who can play any DB position. Just not as big and strong as James.

Davenport is Demarcus Ware. Ultimately he seems to be the most realistic draft position wise, BPA and needs wise. If he’s there and the other guys aren’t we have to take him IMO. Graduated high school at 6’5", 195 lbs. Main reason the big schools backed off. He’s 70 lbs bigger than that now with great talent.


#3

Florida Packer: I had similar thoughts; on another board I compared Harold Landry to KGB- just watch him very similar, the quick dip and sprint to the QB!! Now when KGB was in college I loved the guy praised him to no end on this board because I was sure he was a late 4th or 5th round value and in that range Landry would also be a steal- just not top 75! Of course I was not a Von Miller guy either so my crystal ball only works sometime!

Fully concur that Davenport is the Packers fall back position and that R Smith, T Edmunds, Minkah or Denzel Ward are the prime choices.

I hope if Van der Esch is the top choice that they moved back to take him, I just don’t see him as the 14th best player in this draft!

Interesting comment about James- I also like the guy and he can really thump but I wonder how he and Josh Jones would fit in the same defense!


#4

I think James might be able to fill a kind of Woodson role. Definitely could play the slot and might be able to even play outside or inside at corner. They say he is a good influence and a leader too.


#5

Landry isn’t Miller you are right. Yeah I would put a second round grade on Landry and would not hhave Key on my Board. My issue with Landry is he has some of the issues Reynolds has. He’s a mom no rusher. While he has lose hips and can come in low, he’s going to be giving up 4 inches and 70 lbs to a lot strong OT. I would be very concerned he get himself planted and hurt a lot. I really like Lorenzo Carter too.


#6

The other thing is Vander Esch other than looking a little like Urlacher has a problem Urlacher didn’t, he has trouble with downblocks and struggles with disengaging blockers and is easily caught in trash. This is clearly evident in the Virginia game. In fact he was even straight up pancakes by a fullback in that game. In the Oregon game he played well, but inexplicably I did see him blocked. I would guess they blew scheme assignments. Excellent 2nd round pick maybe even a lower 20-30, but someone will overdraft him if he goes too 15… there’s not as upside there. It is all in the eye of the beholder, but highlight films deceive there are some excellent player studies on You tube and watch the DB tape of both games mentioned.

I am less adamant on Vander Esch than I am on Landry. I know at a minimum a team that drafts him needs to bring him along slowly with a simplified and reduced role. Vander Esch that is.


#7

One other guy that has made a big move up, could easily go 10-15 is Jaire Alexander. Several teams one in particular have fallen in love with him. He moves well and can play all forms of coverage well. I would be goosy though as he is small and not much in run support. We all assume they are only looking defense, but I would bet the two ND Ol guys are very high on there board. The OT has some technical flaws, but I would be surprised if he goes top half of the draft.

Tony Pauline says Jackson and they covet the OSU corner. I like Pauline, but he is guessing.

I hate to say this, because they don’t really need quantity but need impact. At some point if one of handful of guys like Edmonds, Smith, Fitzpatrick and James aren’t there, you might as well trade down and get an additiaonal day 2 pick. Jackson for example is not really a top half pick. People talk about Davenport, but Jackson and even Vander Esch don’t have a big body of work. For a guy like Wolf, if he could get up 3-7 picks it would be an easy call, Fitzpatrick, Nelson and James for experience and big name schools would be on his card. No one could really argue rightfully if they went up to get one of those 3, they tick off all the boxes. My guy is Davenport, but while a ton of respected guys love him for the Packers, because of the school issue might not even have him round 1 on their board. I will acknowledge a GM would have to have big ones and wild side, but when you know how the Packers grade and their system for grading works, the UTSA thing is a big deal…


#8

I concur about the need for a good CB & a EDGE player they are both critical needs for this season’s PACKER team. The fact that Davenport comes from a small college gives me concerns and there have been several EDGE players mentioned in different blogs with the issues each one has. I know its not a necessity to most posters but the OT position of the PACKERS is a huge concern to me. ND OT Mike McGlinchey would be a need that would ease my old mind. I don’t think the PACKERS will take him at #14 and he’ll be drafted by pick #45. But the need for a good right tackle is grave. Guess my only hope is that the tackle drafted from Indiana by TT will have GREATLY impoved since last season.


#9

We can only hope James falls to us and if need be trade up for Mike Hughes in the second round. Those two guys would be perfect for this defense as both can play man coverage. One in the slot the other at corner. If I can’t get James then its somebody BIG say Vita Vea,LBs Smith or Edmunds. Tampa Bay will probably pick James is my guess. We pick at the top of rounds 4 and 5 and have extra picks to move up in round one to go get our guy. Vita is a freak and we have Josh Jones to play “go get the QB” with Vita in the line up someone will get to the QB. You are going to get push up the center. So two scenarios…hope its the first.


#10

I heard there are 8 elite non-QB players in the draft, likely Chubb, Barkley, Nelson, Edmunds, Ward, James, Fitzpatrick, and R. Smith. With all the QB trades likely to happen early in the first round, there is a good chance one of those falls to #14. If that happens, you can divert to Best Player Available rules. However, if these 8 are gone by 14 and we DON’T trade up, look for Josh Jackson or Marcus Davenport to be the pick.


#11

I’ve watched Hawkeye game every season. I don’t want Jackson picked by the PACKERS.He can get :“picks” but he is adverse to tackling.


#12

Ideally we move up to #9 and take Ward or Fitzpatrick; we wouldn’t have to give up a lot to do that either. Yes we signed Williams and House, but those are stop gaps - we need another young corner to pair with King.


#13

Edmunds and Davenport are my two. Pressure increases the productivity of CBs. It is hard to cover for several seconds while the QB has time to find the best option or have something open up.


#14

We are less than 48 hours from the draft and don’t even really no what Cleveland intends to do. Some important rumors out there suggest, until at least the top 4 corners are gone, the cost to move up will be ridiculous. Most, not all “experts” expect James, Ward and Fitzpatrick to be gone by 10. Mayock seems to agree with us, he has Davenport as higher than Ward and some of the others as 14th ranked, Edmunds higher than Davenport. His rankings are pretty good. Interestingly he has CB Josh Jackson as a 2nd round corner. I agree with him there and don’t think he is as good as King.

I just hope they don’t overdraft someone and don’t take undersized guys who are injury guys waiting to happen…Landry.


#15

Good points Sarah. I think there will be up to a couple trades into the top 10 to grab QBs. There are some interesting diversions at play here by teams trying to be intentionally misleading. However, when the smoke clears, my bet is QBs will be taken in the first four picks at a minimum. The Giants will take a QB (not buying the Barkley talk of late), either Allen or Darnold. Jets will take either Rosen or Mayfield. I also think the Browns trade out of #4, mainly because the trade value will be there for them to move down and grab a LT and CB (guessing Bills); with Bills getting Mayfield or Rosen. Then it will get interesting with the Broncos, as they can go many directions. Most scenarios I’ve seen, they grab Nelson or Chubb. However, with Lamar Jackson still standing as the last round 1 grade, I can see Denver taking him or trading down with the Cardinals or even Dolphins. The Broncos pick will shape the picks before the Pack. Regardless of how that shakes out, the Pack will have a shot at Davenport if they grade him high. There is a chance James, Fitzpatrick, or even Ward drop to 14 - but I doubt it. So the most likely scenario the Pack face at 14 is Josh Jackson, Marcus Davenport, Harold Landry, or Calvin Ridley. Between Walterfootball, Drafttek, PFF, and Sporting News - Jackson ranks at an average of 15 on the big board. I think he’s the perfect size they are looking for. However, there are limited Edge rushers and I can easily see them going after Davenport. We will find out tomorrow what the pick is!


#16

I really think that a run on QBs will lead to several elite players being there at 14.


#17

You need the 4 to go, and then someone has to get antsy on Lamar Jackson . I would think to have one of the top tier guys, it would be a combo of things. First Jackson and McGinchly would probably have to come off and / or Davenport and Landry one probably have to go early. Realistically there is a group of 10 or 12 really 1st round grades excluding the Qb’s the Packers could be looking at. The other thing to consider, if Harris is there at 14, NE may call and the Packers could get a 23rd in 1 NE 2 x 2s at a minimum. They could maybe get Davenport Jackson or several others at 23. I think if they relax their threahold and are determined to draft a corner in 1 you could throw Jaire Alexanbder and Oliver into the mix.

To me though I would go up for Edmunds, Smith or James if They are attainable, but my pick favorite still remains to stay at 14 and take Davenport. I don’t buy the boom bust label, I see him as ascending with room to grow physically and as a player. I see him as one of 5 elite on this draft. I warn people though, this is a guy I can see Wolf taking. I can also see Wolf moving up for one of the guys we discussed. No doubt Thompson would get himself locked in and reach at 14. We will see now who Gute is, my sense is Gute may not have Davenport in mind. We will see shortly, we will get GB writers making their picks.


#18

All the GBPG writers said one of either Fitzpatrick or James, most are clear they don’t know and don’t explain how.

I would say just a feeling either they trade up for Edmunds or take a big Edge at 14. I think they will trade back into 1 then or move up in 2 for a player. I would be happy with Edmunds, Davenport, James or Fitzpatrick.

Please if anyone subscribes to McGinn tell us who he says…,.
Best


#19

If they see a chance to get Fitzpatrick or James they may attempt to trade up if it isn’t cost prohibitive. If there are some surprises at the beginning they will probably stay and get one of the players they want. If it doesn’t fall their way they may trade back and then use that leverage to trade back into the late 1st and get two good players.


#20

sarahfar18d
"One other guy that has made a big move up, could easily go 10-15 is Jaire Alexander. Several teams one in particular have fallen in love with him. He moves well and can play all forms of coverage well. I would be goosy though as he is small and not much in run support. We all assume they are only looking defense, but I would bet the two ND Ol guys are very high on there board. The OT has some technical flaws, but I would be surprised if he goes top half of the draft.

Tony Pauline says Jackson and they covet the OSU corner. I like Pauline, but he is guessing"

Spooky, sarahfar, Alexander and Jackson, both mentioned and both drafted - outstanding.