More Draft Options


#1

3 in Fact:

Stay at 14:

This is the most likely option. Don’t imagine BG wants to get too cute. First Draft running the show. No one would argue with him if he stays and selects a great player…

Trade Up:

I’ve read about the price to move up. But to get to Oakland’s spot at #10 it would take our 3rd rounder. I’m fine with that if there is a guy that they are in love with. I believe the Draft in the 1st round is about getting who you want within reason. As long as the price is palatable. We have 12 picks so I can handle giving up 1 or 2 of them to move up and get a star. To me this would be a move to get Tremaine Edmunds or Derwin James if either is there. Of course the Raiders would have to be good with moving down 4 spots to pick up another 3rd.

Absolutely would not trade our 2nd round pick unless it potentially gets us Bradley Chubb. He’d likely need to make it to Indy who’s already said they wouldn’t mind moving back to get more picks.

Trade Down:

Packers are in a very good spot to do this if Lamar Jackson is on the board when they pick and Arizona is still sitting at 15.

This would likely be about picking up another 2nd or 3rd round pick. Two potential partners
are the Chargers and the Patriots IMO. With the Chargers we would likely get their 1st and 3rd round picks for our 1st and 6th round picks.

With New England, we would likely get their 1st (#23) and their 2nd (#43) for our 1st (# 14) and our pick at the top of the 4th, a late 5th, and our 6th. That would leave us with 10 picks including #23, #43, and #45. And then also our 3rd rounder (#76).

Plenty of research including Pro Football Reference indicates that roughly 70% of 1st rounders end up being multi year starting players and about 35-40% of 2nd/3rd rounders become multi year starters.

So the idea of acquiring that extra 2nd or 3rd rounder is definitely worth considering a trade down.


#2

I agree with your trade up point - no need to trade our 2nd rounder for a Safety or CB that might fall to us at 14. I would be on board with giving up #14 + our 2nd for Chubb - that would be stellar!


#3

No way for that. To trade with NE they have to give their 23rd and 2 x 2s nothing go back. The cost to go up for Qb is going to be higher than a number of players…


#4

The other issue is in thinking NE or the chargers want to trade up for Harris. Sure it is possible even at 8,9,10,11, 12 or 14 someone will trade up, but unlikely. I would think if this draft is really deep teams will hesitate to move up. You get stuck when players are evenly bunched. There will either be someone there the Packers want and have a high grade on, or they’ll be stuck.

As to grades there are 2 sides we are missing. First we really don’t know the medical exams. Second we don’t know the background checks and mental evils. We know some of the grading regimen and skew factors, but we just learned this week they are using metrics and probably modeling more than in the past. There are multiple boards, but the Grades are always skewed by need, and knowing the big board sets is impossible to pick. We really don’t know even if they go up who they really would go after. The key will be how soon the 4 QBs go and if anybody other than Arizona wants Harris. If Rosen and Harris were to be there at 14 and someone is hot for Rosen, they might pay a ransoms. But I think Florida Packer is right they probably will have to pick at 14, unless the 4 come off in the first 5 or 6 picks. The longer they stay, the more locked in you are. I love Davenport. Unless you love him or another really athletic guy, this may end up 96 or 07 all over again, just missing impact. Me, I would be ecstatic if Fitzpatrick fell or they broke the mode and took Davenport.

This is the most bizarre draft I have seen in almost 30 years of study. I have never seen such a weird to tier so undefined this late, so many bunched grades with what grades you can see from say 20 - 130. That tells me once you get beyond those first 4 QBs the price to move up and the Benefit of moving down will change dramatically. I also think this is the first time the GB media is completely befuddled. They don’t know what Gute will do, even McGinn. Should be very interesting…