Welcome! Log In Create A New Profile

Advanced

Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy

Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 16, 2018 10:04AM
After years of praising TT for his building from within strategy we now hear that's passe. The cases in point cited are the several teams still alive who've had great success with FA's.

But this is section bias at its worst. If we look at the distribution of all FA acquisitions some teams will have been lucky and reach and do well in the playoffs. But there may be others who were unlucky and crashed. Did the Giants have FA's?
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 16, 2018 09:18PM
The problem is that he let key depth go for a cheaper alternative.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 16, 2018 09:57PM
And for the comp picks they generated.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 17, 2018 05:19AM
I am not talking about those who brought an extra 6 or 7 who didn't make the team....
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 17, 2018 09:38AM
Lack of ability to focus, if that was the factor per TT, has nothing to do with the strategy. Loss of Sitton without appropriate compensation may be strong evidence. Somehow it seemed the store wasn't being minded, and it may have been a TT oversight.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 17, 2018 05:05PM
He has always treated interior lineman like they were a dime a dozen and never factored in their ability.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 17, 2018 09:20PM
I think the Bears would take Lane over Sitton right now.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 18, 2018 03:47AM
It goes way beyond Sitton.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 18, 2018 08:10AM
But one of the keys to managing under a hard salary cap is developing cheap talent. TT may be of the view that O linemen can be so developed relative to other positions. Lane and Baktiari would seem to be examples.
But even if Lane might now have more value then Sitton, Sitton had a big rep when he was lost and more should have been gotten.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/18/2018 08:11AM by Brucest.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 19, 2018 01:57PM
Bottom line is you have to be 53 deep with at least competent talent level. We lament the Packers having lots of injuries each year but the truth is it's not just the Packers. There were eight starting quarterbacks that suffered season ending injuries in 2017. The rate of loss is higher at other positions. On most teams that 45th guy on the depth chart ends up playing meaningful snaps.

Adding a high profile free agent or two can certainly impact a team. But the core of any successful team has to be draft picks, undrafted free agents, and more economical free-agent pick ups. The strategy is sound and widely proven. The fumbles are more the product of poor execution. The roles of GM, Player Personnel, and Scouting must ALL perform very well for any team to be successful.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 19, 2018 06:29PM
Most teams have a capable backup QB, the Packers don't and you could tell that Hundley the past couple of years wasn't the best back up QB the Packers had in the Pre-Season.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 21, 2018 11:54AM
Quote
FloridaPacker
Bottom line is you have to be 53 deep with at least competent talent level.

Every team in the NFL wants to be 53 deep with competent talent level. No team has achieved that in recent years, and probably none ever will.

Instead of looking at D&D as passe, all it really needs to make it work (imo) is just a slightly bolder use of veteran free agency. Take the best of both approaches.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 30, 2018 02:12AM
Pretty key here. People still make mistakes Ted let a couple of good one walk recently but your point is great. When you get a chance to add core impact in the draft you have to. I think a slight move up or even where they are could be a good place. It will be interesting to see how the tiers set up. The combine doesn’t always tell you much, but I have rarely seen testing like the corners and rbs put on last year, wow what a show. But there were holes in that draft. Seems like we say this every year, but this draft is very important as is trades and fa. Your point though is right on.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
January 30, 2018 02:28PM
Yeah has repeatedly made the same mistake at CB and interior offensive linemen.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
February 01, 2018 03:15PM
Could we say the same thing for backup QB?



"It's time to separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, the awkwardly feminine from the possibly Canadian."
--Cotton McKnight
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
February 02, 2018 06:56AM
Hundley was not serviceable even in pre-season. He wasn't the best back up either.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
February 02, 2018 09:14AM
Indeed. Pack got caught with their collective pants down for Collarbone I and II. Need a decent veteran QB that is comfortable in a backup role.



"It's time to separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, the awkwardly feminine from the possibly Canadian."
--Cotton McKnight
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
February 02, 2018 09:51AM
When they cut Hill in favor of Hundley they really screwed themselves. The proceeded to screw themselves more not playing Callahan.
Re: Selection Bias in Team Building Strategy
February 02, 2018 09:57AM
Hey Tundra !!!,Good to see your posts again, you've been missed.



“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” -Marcus Aurelius