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Re: So what about the two point try?

So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 03:08AM
Do you agree with the two point try or not? I'm watching the game right now, but if I heard right there was over 8 minutes when we did it. The reason I bring it up is that if we would have kick the extra point, we would have been able to take the safety and kick off from the 20 instead of the endzone. They still would of had to have a TD to win. I understand why MM did it, it would have put us up by 7. But we are a horrible short yardage team. IMO with 8 minutes(if that is what there was) it was the wrong call to make.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 06:01AM
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caddis
Do you agree with the two point try or not? I'm watching the game right now, but if I heard right there was over 8 minutes when we did it. The reason I bring it up is that if we would have kick the extra point, we would have been able to take the safety and kick off from the 20 instead of the endzone. They still would of had to have a TD to win. I understand why MM did it, it would have put us up by 7. But we are a horrible short yardage team. IMO with 8 minutes(if that is what there was) it was the wrong call to make.

So we lose 13-14 instead? You would be happy with that? If you get two it's in OT. Hawks had to get a TD no matter what we did with the 2 pt conversion. It's simple math.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 06:11AM
Jay, you missed the point of the question and added some uneeded sarcasm, which you seem to do almost every post these days. Please note the question was asked during the game at the time it happened and not after the game. I was asking the same question at the time. 2 field goals could have beat us. Similarly, kick the point and add a field goal and you have a 9 point lead so going for 2 was not a no brainer choice. Given the amount of time left on the clock and the way the game was going, Seattle was unlikely to produce 2 field goal drives so I think MM made the right decision. If there had been more time left on the clock (say 13 or 14 minutes), I think kicking the extra point would have been the right call.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 07:43AM
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Chraya
Jay, you missed the point of the question and added some uneeded sarcasm, which you seem to do almost every post these days. Please note the question was asked during the game at the time it happened and not after the game. I was asking the same question at the time. 2 field goals could have beat us. Similarly, kick the point and add a field goal and you have a 9 point lead so going for 2 was not a no brainer choice. Given the amount of time left on the clock and the way the game was going, Seattle was unlikely to produce 2 field goal drives so I think MM made the right decision. If there had been more time left on the clock (say 13 or 14 minutes), I think kicking the extra point would have been the right call.

my response during the game would have been the same. one play would win the game if we made the 1 pt try or failed the 2pt conversion. making the 2 pt conversion requires the other team to have to score a TD and convert the try. btw the way it wasnt sarcasm. it was a simple question. might have been pointed but not sarcastic.

i think we need a set a rules of how people can post so people dont get upset. now that is sarcasm.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 12:32PM
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jay
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Chraya
Jay, you missed the point of the question and added some uneeded sarcasm, which you seem to do almost every post these days. Please note the question was asked during the game at the time it happened and not after the game. I was asking the same question at the time. 2 field goals could have beat us. Similarly, kick the point and add a field goal and you have a 9 point lead so going for 2 was not a no brainer choice. Given the amount of time left on the clock and the way the game was going, Seattle was unlikely to produce 2 field goal drives so I think MM made the right decision. If there had been more time left on the clock (say 13 or 14 minutes), I think kicking the extra point would have been the right call.

my response during the game would have been the same. one play would win the game if we made the 1 pt try or failed the 2pt conversion. making the 2 pt conversion requires the other team to have to score a TD and convert the try. btw the way it wasnt sarcasm. it was a simple question. might have been pointed but not sarcastic.

i think we need a set a rules of how people can post so people dont get upset. now that is sarcasm.

maybe if one understands the difference between a rhetorical question (as I stated in the first post) and sarcasm (as stated in second last sentence above) it might be easier to understand. once I have found a way on the CPU to give the rhetorical question mark (a backwards ?) i will use it. until then this will have to do "!?"
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 11:55AM
I was going to post a full post here, but you basically said everything I was going to. There was NO chance the Seahawks would have two scoring drives, so it was the right call.



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 12:50PM
Ummm, they did have two scoring drives. They went for the TD and turned the ball over on downs the drive before. They needed a TD or two FG's to win. With the two point conversion they would need a TD to tie.With the kick they needed two FG's for the tie or a TD for the win. Also with the extra point MM could have taken the safety and the free kick. They would never have started the last drive on our side of the 50.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 04:07PM
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caddis
Ummm, they did have two scoring drives. They went for the TD and turned the ball over on downs the drive before. They needed a TD or two FG's to win. With the two point conversion they would need a TD to tie.With the kick they needed two FG's for the tie or a TD for the win. Also with the extra point MM could have taken the safety and the free kick. They would never have started the last drive on our side of the 50.

Right call at the time...still is now. Basically the same difference whether they made a PAT or missed a 2-point TRY...but a BIG difference if they make the conversion. The way the defense was playing, you don't imagine the Seahawk making 2 scoring drives. The after-the-fact line of reasoning that they "could have taken a safety" would NEVER cross a coach's mind in the moment...especially an offensive coach who still remembers his record-setting offense of the prior year.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 05:56PM
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caddis
Ummm, they did have two scoring drives. They went for the TD and turned the ball over on downs the drive before. They needed a TD or two FG's to win. With the two point conversion they would need a TD to tie.With the kick they needed two FG's for the tie or a TD for the win. Also with the extra point MM could have taken the safety and the free kick. They would never have started the last drive on our side of the 50.

They had two scoring drives? I must have been watching a different game, I only saw them score on the one drive, and even that was questionable...

Even in that situation, they wouldn't just give up a safety... Giving them the extra 40 seconds, not being able to run down the clock, is a bigger difference than the ~20 yards of field position.



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 11:06PM
I can see his point of 2 scoring drives in that the time/effort it took the Seahawk to stall (at what--the 7 yard line?) is easily comparable to them actually scoring on that 4th down play.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 26, 2012 12:25AM
And did the Seahawks kick the FG because they thought they had another possession? No, they went for it...



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 26, 2012 02:28AM
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KarlZimm
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caddis
Ummm, they did have two scoring drives. They went for the TD and turned the ball over on downs the drive before. They needed a TD or two FG's to win. With the two point conversion they would need a TD to tie.With the kick they needed two FG's for the tie or a TD for the win. Also with the extra point MM could have taken the safety and the free kick. They would never have started the last drive on our side of the 50.

They had two scoring drives? I must have been watching a different game, I only saw them score on the one drive, and even that was questionable...

Even in that situation, they wouldn't just give up a safety... Giving them the extra 40 seconds, not being able to run down the clock, is a bigger difference than the ~20 yards of field position.

What in the heck are you talking about? They drove to the red zone then drove and got a TD. That's two. How would they get an extra 40 seconds? It didn't take 40 seconds to punt the ball. They took a timeout before 4th down and the clock stops at a change in possession. So if the punter takes the snap and steps out of bounds,the clock still started. There might have been a few seconds difference and the punter would have been able to take his time. Taking the safety was the smart thing to do if they had a 4 point or more lead.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 26, 2012 10:45AM
A scoring drive is a drive on which points are scored... They had ONE scoring drive...

Oh, you're saying to take a safety on the punt itself? I had been thinking of on 3rd down... I've never heard of that move made in that sort of position. Even then, I have no idea who would decide to go for 1 instead of 2 because of such a random type occurrence.



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/26/2012 10:49AM by KarlZimm.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 27, 2012 12:23AM
One of the Journal Sentinel writers tweeted about going for the XP instead of 2, and then before the punt mentioned the possibility of the safety:







I wouldn't have predicted it either. Though I did think of it while they were getting ready to punt. By then, of course, it was way too late. Hindsight is 20/20, or so they say. Who knows how much of a difference that would have made though. One would assume that something as crazy as what did happen couldn't possibly exist in the alternative scenario, but who really knows?



Ray Tetzloff
The Packer Wire Administrator/Webmaster
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 27, 2012 12:58AM
Yes, always easier to decide and second guess when it isn't your decision to make, or after the fact. :-)



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 27, 2012 03:01AM
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KarlZimm
A scoring drive is a drive on which points are scored... They had ONE scoring drive...

Oh, you're saying to take a safety on the punt itself? I had been thinking of on 3rd down... I've never heard of that move made in that sort of position. Even then, I have no idea who would decide to go for 1 instead of 2 because of such a random type occurrence.


Your point was they didn't have time or the ability for two scoring drive when in fact they did. There was 8 minutes left, plenty of time. You take the sure points at that time. There are plenty of other reasons to take the point. How many times have you seen a team score twice with in a minute or two. The Queens did it just this last weekend. All it takes is a kickoff return and a TO in your own territory. Say a fumble by Benson?

Taking a safety on a punt late in a game has been being used for along time. I've seen it most in college ball. But also in the pro's as well as HS. Depends on the situation.

You take the 1 instead of 2 because the the 1 is almost a sure thing. I'm not sure what the conversion rate is on going for two but would guess around 50%. Our team struggles in short yardage, so the average would probably be even less then that.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 28, 2012 01:38AM
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caddis
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KarlZimm
A scoring drive is a drive on which points are scored... They had ONE scoring drive...

Oh, you're saying to take a safety on the punt itself? I had been thinking of on 3rd down... I've never heard of that move made in that sort of position. Even then, I have no idea who would decide to go for 1 instead of 2 because of such a random type occurrence.


Your point was they didn't have time or the ability for two scoring drive when in fact they did. There was 8 minutes left, plenty of time. You take the sure points at that time. There are plenty of other reasons to take the point. How many times have you seen a team score twice with in a minute or two. The Queens did it just this last weekend. All it takes is a kickoff return and a TO in your own territory. Say a fumble by Benson?

Taking a safety on a punt late in a game has been being used for along time. I've seen it most in college ball. But also in the pro's as well as HS. Depends on the situation.

You take the 1 instead of 2 because the the 1 is almost a sure thing. I'm not sure what the conversion rate is on going for two but would guess around 50%. Our team struggles in short yardage, so the average would probably be even less then that.

OK, so we take the point, they score a TD and it is the same result.

I never said anything about "not enough time," it is more about our defense playing lights out football, which they were. At that point in the game, it was more likely that the Seahawks would score one TD than two FG's. They had gotten inside the 30 once all game up to that point, the likelihood of them doing it twice in the last 1/8 of the game was very low. The highest risk the Packers had IS the way the game turned out... You can tell the Seahawks were also thinking similarly, otherwise why did they go for it on 4th down when they were in easy FG range? The Packers played the odds, and the odds were right, so I don't really see where the issue is.

I've seen the safety move to run out the clock at the end of a game without risking a punt return (or fair catch kick), etc. but I don't recall seeing it ever used in the situation you're describing here (at least not in the NFL). If it has been "being used for a long time" I'm sure you can give some examples of a similar situation where that was done?



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/28/2012 01:38AM by KarlZimm.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 28, 2012 03:39AM
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KarlZimm
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caddis
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KarlZimm
A scoring drive is a drive on which points are scored... They had ONE scoring drive...

Oh, you're saying to take a safety on the punt itself? I had been thinking of on 3rd down... I've never heard of that move made in that sort of position. Even then, I have no idea who would decide to go for 1 instead of 2 because of such a random type occurrence.


Your point was they didn't have time or the ability for two scoring drive when in fact they did. There was 8 minutes left, plenty of time. You take the sure points at that time. There are plenty of other reasons to take the point. How many times have you seen a team score twice with in a minute or two. The Queens did it just this last weekend. All it takes is a kickoff return and a TO in your own territory. Say a fumble by Benson?

Taking a safety on a punt late in a game has been being used for along time. I've seen it most in college ball. But also in the pro's as well as HS. Depends on the situation.

You take the 1 instead of 2 because the the 1 is almost a sure thing. I'm not sure what the conversion rate is on going for two but would guess around 50%. Our team struggles in short yardage, so the average would probably be even less then that.

OK, so we take the point, they score a TD and it is the same result.

I never said anything about "not enough time," it is more about our defense playing lights out football, which they were. At that point in the game, it was more likely that the Seahawks would score one TD than two FG's. They had gotten inside the 30 once all game up to that point, the likelihood of them doing it twice in the last 1/8 of the game was very low. The highest risk the Packers had IS the way the game turned out... You can tell the Seahawks were also thinking similarly, otherwise why did they go for it on 4th down when they were in easy FG range? The Packers played the odds, and the odds were right, so I don't really see where the issue is.

I've seen the safety move to run out the clock at the end of a game without risking a punt return (or fair catch kick), etc. but I don't recall seeing it ever used in the situation you're describing here (at least not in the NFL). If it has been "being used for a long time" I'm sure you can give some examples of a similar situation where that was done?

They don't score if they start 30 yards father away. That's the point. They wouldn't start on our side of the 50.

Very low, but it happened didn't it. The chances of a team being able to drive on us at the end of the game goes up since our coaches play softer with the lead. We have been struggling in short yardage situation. And there were still 8 minutes left to play. The odds weren't right with the other factors that were involved.

I don't think you can end a game on a safety. So I'm sure you can give examples of games ending on safeties. Otherwise we are talking about the same type of play. Since the reporter and other people were bringing up the same thing, I'd have to say it's happened before. I can't recall any specific games,but I've probably seen it a dozen times throughout the years.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 01:45PM
How do you know the game would have ended up any different? How do you know they don't return the free kick for a TD? Were they 30 yards further away they still have the exact same chance of a Hail Mary, as Wilson can still get it into the end zone from 55 yards away.

[espn.go.com] - According to ESPN's win probability model, built on 10 years of NFL play-by-play data, the Packers had a 96.4 percent chance of winning when they lined up for the final play. Since 2001, only two games have been won by a team facing a situation similar to the Seahawks: Fourth-and-five at the 24-yard line.

The odds were clearly for us. There is no decision that is going to work 100% of the time (not even 100% of extra points are made) during a football game, you're always playing the odds. if you don't play the odds, you're going to be bit by it more often than not, that it ended up not working out doesn't mean the right decision wasn't made. If you would risk the 65% chance they're going to score a TD over 2 FGs and skew that because of the 1/100 chance that taking a safety might help, go for it, but it'll work out worse for you more often than it won't...



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 04:03PM
Make up whatever odds you want. Which you just did. The odds are that someone was going to score with 8 minutes left. It was too early to go for two and it took options away when it was missed.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 05:00PM
It took an option away that is highly improbable (in that I have never seen it taken in an NFL game) and it would have taken us to OT if it were made. Between those options, I would take that trade off any day.



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 05:22PM
This is why PM was invented.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 05:42PM
To discuss the point of a thread??



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 06:33PM
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KarlZimm
It took an option away that is highly improbable (in that I have never seen it taken in an NFL game) and it would have taken us to OT if it were made. Between those options, I would take that trade off any day.

I'll guarantee they would have done it with a 6 point lead and under a minute left. And your lack of memory hardly makes it improbable.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 06:40PM
OK, then point to two instances of it happening, in modern NFL history, in that sort of situation...



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 08:01PM
Sure, I'll take the time to look it up right after you show me two games that ended on a safety. With other people as well as a writer that has already been shown to you they thought about it as well. I would think that should be enough to show it has happened before.
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 30, 2012 10:22PM
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caddis
Sure, I'll take the time to look it up right after you show me two games that ended on a safety. With other people as well as a writer that has already been shown to you they thought about it as well. I would think that should be enough to show it has happened before.

I don't know what this demonstrates/proves as it didn't really have anything to do with my arguments, but... Divisional Playoffs at the end of the 1994 season, Packers vs. Lions, Hentrich ran out of the end zone instead of punting to run out the clock, winning 16-12. Then Sep 25, 2011, Andy Lee of the 49ers did it against the Bengals, winning 13-8.

That people thought of it means it has happened before? I've thought of the heat death of the universe, the possibility of ghosts and intelligent life on other planets, but that doesn't mean they're true/have happened...



Karl Zimmerman
Part-Owner of 13 Time World Champion Green Bay Packers
Re: So what about the two point try?
September 25, 2012 01:01PM
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jay
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caddis
Do you agree with the two point try or not? I'm watching the game right now, but if I heard right there was over 8 minutes when we did it. The reason I bring it up is that if we would have kick the extra point, we would have been able to take the safety and kick off from the 20 instead of the endzone. They still would of had to have a TD to win. I understand why MM did it, it would have put us up by 7. But we are a horrible short yardage team. IMO with 8 minutes(if that is what there was) it was the wrong call to make.

So we lose 13-14 instead? You would be happy with that? If you get two it's in OT. Hawks had to get a TD no matter what we did with the 2 pt conversion. It's simple math.

Yes it is simple math.Less then a minute left and they would started the last drive with much worse field position. They scored on the last play of the game. The free kick would have added twenty or thirty yards on to that play. It isn't just the points on the board it's also what your able to do as a coach. By the way, it is legal to block an extra point, though rare, how would you feel about losing 13-12?